I love to play Black Jack. Once I spend 9 months on a client project that required me to live in a Casino (poor me) where I got to play Black Jack every day. I kept track of my Black Jack investment over the 9 months and observed the traits of other gamblers. The casino had a lot of conferences so I learned a lot about gamblers based on their careers as well as how Black Jack and “Revenue Science™” have a lot in common.
First observations about gamblers by their careers:
- Doctors don’t have a clue about betting, cards, or probability (they bet crazy)
- Teachers only know how to play bad Black Jack at a $2 table
- Engineers all have a “system” and follow it win or lose and seldom lose big
- Car dealers are great gamblers and know how to take advantage of every possible angle to win a dollar
Learnings about Black Jack and “Revenue Science™” is that:
- Diagnosis the current state of the table or the market – like what is the dealers up card
- No short-term strategy should fight the current state of the table or the market (like knowing if all the small cards are gone or the market bubble is about to burst)
- Understand the local casino’s or markets rules (over time it is often worth 5% to you or the house)
- There are always immediate decisions that are more likely to win or lose (don’t split 10s or fight “Revenue Science™”)
- Following math (what cards are still in the game) or the science (“Revenue Science™” predicts what will happen next) in the short-term and over the long-term creates more money in my pocket
There are no sure things in life but bad decisions repeated will assure you of bad outcomes. So know the science and develop a discipline to stick with it over the long-term in order to come out on top.